Turkey Throws Monkey Wrench

Just as (surprise) good news comes out of Iraq – reports from Iraq's Interior Ministry claim a drastic 70 percent decrease in violence since June 2007 – a looming Turkish invasion stands to disrupt the current period of decreased attacks and improved security:

Dozens of Turkish military vehicles loaded with soldiers and heavy weapons rumbled toward the Iraqi border on Monday after an ambush by rebel Kurds that left eight soldiers missing and 12 dead.

Turkey has reported they will exhaust all diplomatic options before entering Iraq, but the string of attacks by PKK rebels aren't doing much to help the situation:

Tensions are high after a bloody day of fighting on the border between Turkey and Iraq.

Turkey's defense minister says 17 Turkish soldiers were killed after Kurdish separatist rebels ambushed a Turkish military convoy, and then clashed with Turkish troops throughout the day.

The Turkish army is the second largest in NATO, with approximately 600,000 troops. Compare this to the PKK's estimated 3,000 rebels, and it's not hard to see where this conflict is heading – there isn't much hope for a favorable outcome for the Kurdish rebels.

There continues to be back-and-forth reports about either diplomatic or military resolutions to the situation. Turkey's prime minister told the UK newspaper The Times that Turkey will attack northern Iraq:

Turkey will launch military action against Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq despite frantic appeals for restraint from America and Nato, its Prime Minister has told The Times.

Speaking hours before the PKK, the Kurdish Workers’ Party, killed at least 17 more Turkish soldiers yesterday, Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that Turkey had urged the US and Iraqi governments repeatedly to expel the separatists but they had done nothing. Turkey’s patience was running out and the country had every right to defend itself, he said. “Whatever is necessary will be done,” he declared in an interview. “We don’t have to get permission from anybody.”

In contrast to these reports, the Kurdish rebels have offered a conditional ceasefire (as if they are in a position to ask for terms):

SULAIMANIYAH, Iraq (Thomson Financial) - The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) said it was offering a ceasefire provided Turkey stops attacking the rebels and abandons plans for an incursion into Iraq, according to a rebel website.

The ceasefire came with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatening an imminent incursion into Iraq unless Baghdad clamps down on the PKK and hands over its leaders.

And what is the United States doing to help remedy the situation? A full-court press.